Arsenal vs Bate Borisov: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Haradski, Dzerzhinsk
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Bate Borisov. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Bate Borisov?
Bate Borisov starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,653 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Bate Borisov have 2, 9 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belshina(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Naftan(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Neman(home) | 2-3 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baranovichi(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arsenal win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Bate Borisov win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Bate Borisov 2-3 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Bate Borisov 0-1 Arsenal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Bate Borisov 0-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 2, 2025 | Arsenal 0-1 Bate Borisov | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Bate Borisov 2-1 Arsenal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Bate Borisov 3-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bate Borisov vs Arsenal on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 0.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bate Borisov score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Bate Borisov | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 11th in Premier League (21 points from 19 matches) and Bate Borisov sit 14th (14 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Arsenal | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 21 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Bate Borisov?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Bate Borisov.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Bate Borisov played?
- Arsenal vs Bate Borisov is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Haradski, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.