Barcelona vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,566 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 278-point Elo edge (2,430 vs 2,152).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Villarreal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 11Raphinha
- 17A. Gordon
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 7Fermín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 2João Cancelo
- 18Gerard Martín
- 4B. Farinas
- 1Joan García
Villarreal
4-4-2- 7Gerard Moreno
- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 16C. Macia
- 17T. Buchanan
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 15S. Mouriño
- 12Renato Veiga
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 6Pau Navarro
- 25P. Gulácsi
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 09:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Villarreal have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 6-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 0-6 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 5-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barcelona wins, 0 draws, 2 Villarreal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Barcelona 4-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Villarreal 0-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Barcelona 2-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Villarreal 1-5 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Villarreal 3-4 Barcelona | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Villarreal on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 4.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 4.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 1st in La Liga (30 points from 11 matches) and Villarreal sit 9th (12 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | 30 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
A question about Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Villarreal played?
- Barcelona vs Villarreal is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.