Osasuna vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab AI model makes Osasuna the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Osasuna wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Malaga?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Osasuna (1,963) and Malaga (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Osasuna vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Osasuna
4-4-2- 17A. Budimir
- 9Raúl García
- 7Moncayola
- 14Rubén García
- 6Lucas Torró
- 16Moi Gómez
- 27Íñigo Arguibide
- 24Catena
- 35U. Santos
- 23Abel Bretones
- 13Aitor Fernández
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Osasuna wins, 2 draws, 1 Malaga win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | Malaga 1-2 Osasuna | Segunda División |
| Nov 3, 2018 | Osasuna 2-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Jan 27, 2017 | Osasuna 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2016 | Malaga 1-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Mar 10, 2014 | Osasuna 0-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Oct 4, 2013 | Malaga 0-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Osasuna sit 16th in La Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Osasuna vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Osasuna the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Malaga played?
- Osasuna vs Malaga is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.