Bari vs Crotone: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari
The Footlab AI model makes Bari the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Crotone. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bari vs Crotone?
On Elo ratings, Bari has 1,840 points and Crotone 1,798.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bari vs Crotone
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bari
4-3-1-2- 7K. Butić
- 24F. Bianchi
- 25G. Maggiore
- 5E. Darboe
- 21M. Della Morte
- 11A. Tribuzzi
- 79M. Elia
- 6V. Mogoș
- 72N. Cocetta
- 14M. Anzolin
- 31M. Cerofolini
Crotone
4-2-3-1- 96M. Zunno
- 99F. Crapisto
- 80Filippo Grosso
- 31P. Rodriguez
- 5L. Russo
- 8I. Torres
- 13N. Armini
- 26G. Tanco
- 63A. Veltri
- 23F. Groppelli
- 1D. Merelli
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bari have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Crotone have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Giugliano(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sorrento(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Audace Cerignola(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Catania(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Salernitana(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SS Monopoli(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Inter U23(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Bari score 1.3 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Crotone score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari | 1.3 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Crotone | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bari sit 2nd in Serie C - Girone C (19 points from 9 matches) and Crotone sit 20th (0 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 19 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
A question about Bari vs Crotone?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bari vs Crotone?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bari the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Crotone.
- Where and when is Bari vs Crotone played?
- Bari vs Crotone is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.