Sorrento vs Casertana: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, Potenza
The Footlab model makes Casertana the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Sorrento. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sorrento vs Casertana?
Casertana starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sorrento have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Casertana have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giugliano(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 3-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Savoia(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 13, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Salernitana(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 6, 2026 | Crotone(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sorrento win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Casertana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Casertana 2-0 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Sorrento 1-2 Casertana | Serie C - Girone C |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Casertana 4-0 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Sorrento 1-1 Casertana | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Casertana 5-2 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Sorrento 1-1 Casertana | Serie C - Girone C |
Last archived meeting: Casertana vs Sorrento on Mar 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sorrento score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Casertana score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorrento | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Casertana | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sorrento sit 5th in Serie C - Girone C (3 points from 1 matches) and Casertana sit 12th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sorrento | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Casertana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sorrento vs Casertana?
- The Footlab model makes Casertana the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Sorrento.
- Where and when is Sorrento vs Casertana played?
- Sorrento vs Casertana is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.