Barnsley vs Oxford United: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Oxford United?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,791) and Oxford United (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Oxford United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barnsley win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Oxford United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | Oxford United 0-1 Barnsley | League One |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Barnsley 1-3 Oxford United | League One |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Barnsley 2-0 Oxford United | League One |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Oxford United 1-2 Barnsley | League One |
| Jan 29, 2019 | Oxford United 2-2 Barnsley | League One |
| Aug 4, 2018 | Barnsley 4-0 Oxford United | League One |
Last archived meeting: Oxford United vs Barnsley on Jan 23, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 21st in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Oxford United sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Oxford United?
- The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Oxford United played?
- Barnsley vs Oxford United is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.