Barra Mansa vs SE Belford Roxo: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 3Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Leão do Sul, Barra Mansa, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes SE Belford Roxo the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Barra Mansa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barra Mansa vs SE Belford Roxo?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Barra Mansa (1,551) and SE Belford Roxo (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barra Mansa have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; SE Belford Roxo have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Búzios(home) | 0-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 0-3 | Carioca C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 2-2 | Carioca C |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Mageense(home) | 3-0 | Carioca C |
| May 31, 2026 | Barcelona RJ(away) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Resende(away) | 1-8 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Resende(home) | 1-3 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Serra Macaense(home) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Barra Mansa win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 SE Belford Roxo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo 4-1 Barra Mansa | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: SE Belford Roxo vs Barra Mansa on Sep 28, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Barra Mansa score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; SE Belford Roxo score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra Mansa | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| SE Belford Roxo | 1.4 | 1.5 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barra Mansa sit 4th in Carioca B2 (1 points from 1 matches) and SE Belford Roxo sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SE Belford Roxo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Barra Mansa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barra Mansa vs SE Belford Roxo?
- The Footlab model makes SE Belford Roxo the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Barra Mansa.
- Where and when is Barra Mansa vs SE Belford Roxo played?
- Barra Mansa vs SE Belford Roxo is played on September 13, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Leão do Sul, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.