Serra Macaense vs Paduano: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 3Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Paduano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Paduano?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Serra Macaense (1,587) and Paduano (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Paduano have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Niteroiense(away) | 1-5 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Serra Macaense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Paduano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2023 | Serra Macaense 0-1 Paduano | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Serra Macaense 0-4 Paduano | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serra Macaense vs Paduano on Sep 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Paduano score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Paduano | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Paduano?
- The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Paduano.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Paduano played?
- Serra Macaense vs Paduano is played on September 13, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.