Friburguense vs Barra Mansa: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Eduardo Guinle, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Friburguense the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Barra Mansa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Friburguense vs Barra Mansa?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Friburguense (1,541) and Barra Mansa (1,551).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Friburguense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Barra Mansa have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Búzios(home) | 0-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 0-3 | Carioca C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 2-2 | Carioca C |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Mageense(home) | 3-0 | Carioca C |
| May 31, 2026 | Barcelona RJ(away) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
How many goals should we expect?
Friburguense score 0.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Barra Mansa score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friburguense | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
| Barra Mansa | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barra Mansa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Friburguense vs Barra Mansa?
- The Footlab model makes Friburguense the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Barra Mansa.
- Where and when is Friburguense vs Barra Mansa played?
- Friburguense vs Barra Mansa is played on September 20, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eduardo Guinle, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.