Barrow vs Hartlepool: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SO Legal Stadium, Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Hartlepool the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Barrow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barrow vs Hartlepool?
Hartlepool starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,763 vs 1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barrow have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hartlepool have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutton Utd(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Middlesbrough U21(home) | 0-10 | National League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barrow win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Hartlepool win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hartlepool 2-0 Barrow | National League |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Hartlepool 3-1 Barrow | League Two |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Barrow 3-1 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Feb 8, 2022 | Hartlepool 3-1 Barrow | League Two |
| Aug 14, 2021 | Barrow 3-2 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Dec 28, 2019 | Hartlepool 2-2 Barrow | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Barrow score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hartlepool score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Hartlepool | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barrow sit 20th in National League (1 points from 3 matches) and Hartlepool sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barrow vs Hartlepool?
- The Footlab model makes Hartlepool the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Barrow.
- Where and when is Barrow vs Hartlepool played?
- Barrow vs Hartlepool is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SO Legal Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.