Basconia vs Gernika: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Artunduaga, Basauri
The Footlab AI model makes Basconia the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1. If Basconia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Basconia vs Gernika?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Basconia (1,968) and Gernika (1,886).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Basconia vs Gernika
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Basconia
Not enough data to predict the Basconia lineup.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Basconia have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Gernika have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eibar II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arosa(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Basconia win, 2 draws, 1 Gernika win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Basconia 0-0 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Gernika 1-0 Basconia | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 8, 2020 | Basconia 2-2 Gernika | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 13, 2019 | Gernika 0-1 Basconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Basconia score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basconia | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Gernika | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Basconia sit 9th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 6 matches) and Gernika sit 8th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gernika | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Basconia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
A question about Basconia vs Gernika?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Basconia vs Gernika?
- The Footlab AI model makes Basconia the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Basconia vs Gernika played?
- Basconia vs Gernika is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Artunduaga, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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