Bastia vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 20Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani
The Footlab AI model makes Bastia the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Caen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bastia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bastia vs Caen?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Bastia (1,768) and Caen (1,790).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bastia vs Caen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bastia
4-2-3-1- 12L. Belal
- 17J. Eickmayer
- 4A. Roncaglia
- 22I. Monnier
- 3H. Makalou
- 9F. Tomi
- 35N. Douce
- 2N. Zilliox
- 20G. Akueson
- 34D. Djedje
- 1T. De Percin
Caen
4-3-3- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20Keelyan Portut
- 10I. Botella
- 24Léo Milliner
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 18J. Bomo
- 3D. Bolumbu
- 23L. Carole
- 12D. Appiah
- 5Y. Diaby
- 16Y. Clémentia
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bastia have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Caen have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bastia wins, 0 draws, 4 Caen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Caen 0-1 Bastia | Ligue 3 |
| May 10, 2025 | Bastia 2-1 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Caen 2-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Bastia 1-2 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Caen 1-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 3, 2023 | Caen 3-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Caen | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bastia sit 12th in Ligue 3 (11 points from 9 matches) and Caen sit 7th (15 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 15 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
A question about Bastia vs Caen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bastia vs Caen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bastia the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Caen.
- Where and when is Bastia vs Caen played?
- Bastia vs Caen is played on February 13, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Armand-Césari, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.