Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC)Workers' Stadium, Beijing
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Beijing Guoan starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,524).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beijing Guoan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Chongqing Tongliang Long have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Wuhan Three Towns(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Beijing Guoan win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Chongqing Tongliang Long score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 0.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Beijing Guoan sit 10th in Super League (15 points from 15 matches) and Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd (24 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 36 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 24 |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Where and when is Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long played?
- Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is played on November 8, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC) at Workers' Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 8, 2026Shanghai ShenhuavsQingdao Youth Island
- Nov 8, 2026SHANGHAI SIPGvsShenyang Urban
- Nov 8, 2026Shandong LunengvsChengdu Better City
- Nov 8, 2026Hangzhou GreentownvsHenan Jianye
- Nov 8, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsSichuan Jiuniu
- Nov 8, 2026Dalian ZhixingvsTianjin Teda
- Nov 8, 2026Yunnan YukunvsWuhan Three Towns