Belarus vs San Marino: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, Minsk
The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for San Marino. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belarus vs San Marino?
Belarus is a heavy favourite: 1,422 Elo points against 1,053 — a 369-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belarus have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; San Marino have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania(away) | 1-7 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Belarus win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 San Marino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2018 | San Marino 0-2 Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | Belarus 5-0 San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
Last archived meeting: San Marino vs Belarus on Nov 18, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
Belarus score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; San Marino score 0.6 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| San Marino | 0.6 | 3.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belarus vs San Marino?
- The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for San Marino.
- Where and when is Belarus vs San Marino played?
- Belarus vs San Marino is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.