Latvia vs Montenegro: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Montenegro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Latvia vs Montenegro?
Montenegro starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,416 vs 1,310).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Latvia have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Montenegro have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Latvia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Montenegro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2021 | Montenegro 0-0 Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 24, 2021 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Montenegro 1-1 Latvia | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Montenegro score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Montenegro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Latvia vs Montenegro?
- The Footlab model makes Latvia the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Montenegro.
- Where and when is Latvia vs Montenegro played?
- Latvia vs Montenegro is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.