Estonia vs Luxembourg: result 1-0 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague C - 3Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Full time
What was the result of Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia won 1-0 on October 3, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 5′R. PeetsonEstonia
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Luxembourg win at 36%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 1-1. Actual score: 1-0.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Estonia vs Luxembourg
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Estonia
5-3-2- 17M. Männilaan
- 14P. Kristal
- 4M. Käit
- 20M. Poom
- 10K. Palumets
- 19M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 18K. Mets
- 2M. Kuusk
- 3M. Paskotši
- 6R. Peetson
- 12M. Igonen
Luxembourg
4-1-4-1- 9Jayson Videira Pereira
- 7Aiman Dardari
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
- 11V. Thill
- 15Omar Natami
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
- 13D. Carlson
- 5V. Selimović
- 3E. Mahmutović
- 4F. Bohnert
- 1A. Moris
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estonia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Luxembourg have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 0-2 | FIFA Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Estonia score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Luxembourg score 0.7 and concede 1.5.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Luxembourg | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estonia sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (6 points from 4 matches) and Luxembourg sit 4th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy