Benfica B vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Caixa Futebol Campus, Seixal
The Footlab model makes Benfica B the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica B vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Benfica B (1,949) and Penafiel (1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica B have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Penafiel have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Benfica B win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Penafiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Penafiel 1-1 Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Benfica B 0-2 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Benfica B 1-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Penafiel 1-1 Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Penafiel 0-1 Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Benfica B 1-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica B score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica B | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica B sit 5th in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Penafiel sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benfica B | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica B vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica B the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Benfica B vs Penafiel played?
- Benfica B vs Penafiel is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Caixa Futebol Campus, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.