Match

União de Leiria vs Farense: prediction and stats

Segunda LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria

União de LeiriaFarense

The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for União de Leiria. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win União de Leiria vs Farense?

A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate União de Leiria (1,944) and Farense (1,944).

União de Leiria win35 %
Draw28 %
Farense win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União de Leiria have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Farense have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

União de Leiria
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Leixoes(away)4-2Segunda Liga
Aug 15, 2026Benfica B(home)1-2Segunda Liga
Aug 9, 2026Vizela(away)0-1Segunda Liga
Jul 28, 2026Las Palmas(away)2-3Friendlies Clubs
Jul 15, 2026AD Marco 09(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Farense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Felgueiras 1932(home)1-1Segunda Liga
Aug 16, 2026FC Porto B(away)3-1Segunda Liga
Aug 9, 2026Torreense(home)2-1Segunda Liga
Aug 1, 2026Fulham(home)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026Benfica B(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 União de Leiria win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Farense win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026União de Leiria 0-3 FarenseSegunda Liga
Dec 21, 2025Farense 0-1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga

Last archived meeting: União de Leiria vs Farense on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

União de Leiria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Farense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
União de Leiria1.51.548/159/15
Farense1.10.757/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

União de Leiria sit 9th in Segunda Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Farense sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Farense3210637
9União de Leiria3102553

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for União de Leiria vs Farense?
The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for União de Leiria.
Where and when is União de Leiria vs Farense played?
União de Leiria vs Farense is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, in the Segunda Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: União de Leiria and Farense

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