Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, Castelo Branco
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,753 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra?
On Elo ratings, Benfica Castelo Branco has 1,818 points and UD da Serra 1,876.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 02:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica Castelo Branco have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; UD da Serra have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Benfica Castelo Branco wins, 1 draw, 1 UD da Serra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | UD da Serra 2-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 3-0 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Benfica Castelo Branco 4-3 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 20, 2022 | UD da Serra 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; UD da Serra score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.2 | 1.6 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| UD da Serra | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica Castelo Branco sit 6th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (9 points from 6 matches) and UD da Serra sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra played?
- Benfica Castelo Branco vs UD da Serra is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.