FC Alverca II vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Alverca II vs Sertanense?
FC Alverca II starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sertanense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alcains(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Alverca II win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Sertanense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | FC Alverca II 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Sertanense 1-1 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 3, 2024 | FC Alverca II 0-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Sertanense 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: FC Alverca II vs Sertanense on Feb 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca II | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Alverca II sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 1 matches) and Sertanense sit 11th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Alverca II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is FC Alverca II vs Sertanense played?
- FC Alverca II vs Sertanense is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.