Match

FC Alverca II vs Sertanense: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)

FC Alverca IISertanense

The Footlab AI model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,788 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Alverca II vs Sertanense?

FC Alverca II starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,739).

54%27%19%
FC Alverca II winDrawSertanense win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC Alverca II vs Sertanense

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC Alverca II

4-3-3
  1. RRodrigo Catraio
  2. RRafael Santos
  3. AAfonso Vagarinho
  1. PPedro Henriques
  2. 6Tomas Lacerda
  3. JJanickson da Silva
  1. DDiogo Ramos
  2. DDiogo Cordes
  3. FFábio Celestino
  4. SSimão Lamas
  1. 1Cristian

Sertanense

4-3-3
  1. MM. Emmanuel
  2. DDiogo Teixeira
  3. DDavi Barbosa
  1. 5Tiago Rodrigues
  2. MMauro Santos
  3. DDavid Morais
  1. GGabriel Morais Piçarra
  2. DDaniel Xavier
  3. EElvis Landim
  4. JJoão André Farinha Tomás
  1. DDaniel Leitão

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Sertanense have 2, 6 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Alverca II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Oliveira Hospital(away)1-3Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 27, 2026Fazendense(home)5-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 13, 2026Naval 1893(away)0-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 6, 2026Benfica Castelo Branco(home)0-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Aug 23, 2026UD da Serra(away)1-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sertanense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Os Marialvas(away)0-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 27, 2026O Elvas(away)0-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 13, 2026Atlético Malveira(home)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Aug 30, 2026Alcains(away)0-1Taça de Portugal
Aug 23, 2026Mortágua(home)1-3Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Alverca II wins, 3 draws, 1 Sertanense win.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 9, 2025FC Alverca II 1-1 SertanenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 29, 2024Sertanense 1-1 FC Alverca IICampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Mar 3, 2024FC Alverca II 0-1 SertanenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Nov 5, 2023Sertanense 0-0 FC Alverca IICampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Last archived meeting: FC Alverca II vs Sertanense on Feb 9, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

FC Alverca II score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Alverca II1.71.147/159/15
Sertanense0.71.137/153/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Alverca II sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (3 points from 4 matches) and Sertanense sit 12th (2 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11FC Alverca II4103643
12Sertanense4022372

A question about FC Alverca II vs Sertanense?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs Sertanense?
The Footlab AI model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Sertanense.
Where and when is FC Alverca II vs Sertanense played?
FC Alverca II vs Sertanense is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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