Mortágua vs Fátima: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Fátima. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mortágua wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs Fátima?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,838) and Fátima (1,817).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mortágua vs Fátima
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Fátima
Not enough data to predict the Fátima lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Fátima have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mortágua wins, 1 draw, 1 Fátima win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Mortágua 0-1 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Fátima 1-3 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Mortágua 2-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Fátima 0-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fátima score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Fátima | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (10 points from 4 matches) and Fátima sit 9th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
A question about Mortágua vs Fátima?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs Fátima?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Fátima.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs Fátima played?
- Mortágua vs Fátima is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.