Benfica vs Moreirense: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,752 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Moreirense?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,416 Elo points against 2,036, a 380-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs Moreirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 09:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Moreirense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Benfica wins, 1 draw, 0 Moreirense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense 0-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Benfica 4-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Moreirense 0-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Benfica 3-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Moreirense 1-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (19 points from 8 matches) and Moreirense sit 12th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
A question about Benfica vs Moreirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Moreirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Moreirense played?
- Benfica vs Moreirense is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.