Nacional vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Guimaraes?
Guimaraes starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (2,095 vs 1,966).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Guimaraes have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Recreativa de Lamelas(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nacional wins, 1 draw, 3 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Nacional 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Guimaraes 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2021 | Nacional 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Guimaraes vs Nacional on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Guimaraes played?
- Nacional vs Guimaraes is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.