Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If GIL Vicente wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,316 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,115 vs 2,006).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 24S. Pérez
- 16Silvi
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 1P. Sequeira
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 9Walace
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 10Santi García
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 45David Moreira
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 3Espigares
- 30Lucão
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 04:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; GIL Vicente have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-4 | Taça da Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 19, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Casa Pia win, 3 draws, 2 GIL Vicente wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 27, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia on Aug 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 16th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 11 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 7th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 8 |
A question about Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente played?
- Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.