Match

Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats

Primeira LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa PiaGIL Vicente

The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?

GIL Vicente starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (2,058 vs 1,945).

Casa Pia win30 %
Draw28 %
GIL Vicente win43 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; GIL Vicente have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Casa Pia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026GIL Vicente(away)0-2Primeira Liga
Aug 17, 2026Benfica(home)0-7Primeira Liga
Aug 8, 2026Maritimo(away)0-1Primeira Liga
Aug 1, 2026Leixoes(away)2-6Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026Benfica B(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
GIL Vicente
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Casa Pia(home)2-0Primeira Liga
Aug 9, 2026Rio Ave(home)1-0Primeira Liga
Jul 25, 2026Moreirense(home)2-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026Felgueiras 1932(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026Sporting CP(away)0-3Primeira Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Casa Pia win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 GIL Vicente win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Apr 27, 2026GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Dec 13, 2025Casa Pia 1-1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Feb 22, 2025Casa Pia 1-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Sep 22, 2024GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Mar 3, 2024Casa Pia 0-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga

Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia on Aug 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Casa Pia0.71.745/155/15
GIL Vicente1.31.348/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Casa Pia sit 18th in Primeira Liga (0 points from 3 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 5th (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5GIL Vicente2200306
18Casa Pia30030100

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Casa Pia.
Where and when is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente played?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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