Moreirense vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,357 Elo points against 2,003 — a 353-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Benfica have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Moreirense win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Benfica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Benfica 4-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Moreirense 0-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Benfica 3-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Moreirense 1-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Moreirense 0-0 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Benfica vs Moreirense on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 15th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Benfica sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Benfica?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Benfica played?
- Moreirense vs Benfica is played on August 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.