BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Chiangrai United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
BG Pathum United starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,823 vs 1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BG Pathum United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Chiangrai United have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Uthai Thani(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lamphun Warrior(away) | 0-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Ratchaburi(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Bangkok United(home) | 2-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sukhothai FC(home) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 BG Pathum United win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Chiangrai United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | BG Pathum United 2-2 Chiangrai United | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | BG Pathum United 2-0 Chiangrai United | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Chiangrai United 2-3 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Dec 28, 2023 | BG Pathum United 2-2 Chiangrai United | Thai League 1 |
Last archived meeting: BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chiangrai United score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chiangrai United | 1.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BG Pathum United sit 4th in Thai League 1 (52 points from 30 matches) and Chiangrai United sit 7th (40 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
| 7 | Chiangrai United | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 36 | 37 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
- The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Chiangrai United.
- Where and when is BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United played?
- BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at BG Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.