Middlesbrough vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Middlesbrough (1,926) and Derby (1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Derby have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Middlesbrough win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Middlesbrough 4-1 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Derby 0-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Derby vs Middlesbrough on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 11th in Championship (3 points from 2 matches) and Derby sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Derby.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Derby played?
- Middlesbrough vs Derby is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.