Boca Juniors vs Lanus: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 7Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Lanus. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Lanus?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,981 vs 1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boca Juniors have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lanus have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Boca Juniors win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Lanus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lanus 0-3 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 11, 2025 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Lanus 1-0 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Lanus 2-1 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Boca Juniors 1-1 Lanus | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Jun 10, 2023 | Boca Juniors 1-1 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
How many goals should we expect?
Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lanus score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lanus | 0.7 | 1.3 | 7 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boca Juniors sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (30 points from 16 matches) and Lanus sit 6th (24 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 24 |
| 11 | Lanus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boca Juniors vs Lanus?
- The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Lanus.
- Where and when is Boca Juniors vs Lanus played?
- Boca Juniors vs Lanus is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Union Santa FevsSarmiento Junin
- Aug 29, 2026Deportivo RiestravsVelez Sarsfield
- Aug 29, 2026Rosario CentralvsGimnasia L.P.
- Aug 29, 2026HuracanvsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Aug 30, 2026Talleres CordobavsCentral Cordoba de Santiago
- Aug 30, 2026Atletico TucumanvsBelgrano Cordoba
- Aug 30, 2026BanfieldvsRiver Plate
- Aug 30, 2026Instituto CordobavsSan Lorenzo