Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 7Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Union Santa Fe (1,835) and Sarmiento Junin (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Santa Fe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sarmiento Junin have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Union Santa Fe win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sarmiento Junin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin 1-3 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| May 15, 2023 | Union Santa Fe 0-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 8, 2022 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Sarmiento Junin vs Union Santa Fe on Feb 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sarmiento Junin score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.2 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Santa Fe sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 16 matches) and Sarmiento Junin sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
- The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin played?
- Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin is played on August 28, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 15 de Abril, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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