Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Gimnasia L.P.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P.?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Rosario Central (1,915) and Gimnasia L.P. (1,845).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rosario Central have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Gimnasia L.P. have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aldosivi(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Racing Club(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 1-1 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-4 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barracas Central(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Rosario Central win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gimnasia L.P. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P. 1-2 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Gimnasia L.P. 0-3 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Rosario Central 2-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Gimnasia L.P. 0-1 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Rosario Central 2-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 Rosario Central | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Gimnasia L.P. vs Rosario Central on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rosario Central score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia L.P. score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rosario Central sit 4th in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and Gimnasia L.P. sit 6th (26 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rosario Central | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 26 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P.?
- The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Gimnasia L.P..
- Where and when is Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P. played?
- Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P. is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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