Bologna vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
The Footlab AI model makes Bologna the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bologna wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Bologna (2,054) and Fiorentina (2,037).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bologna vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bologna
3-4-3- 28N. Cambiaghi
- 10F. Bernardeschi
- 91R. Piccoli
- 19L. Ferguson
- 4T. Pobega
- 33Juan Miranda
- 20N. Zortea
- 36M. Darmian
- 16N. Casale
- 3A. Theate
- 1Ł. Skorupski
Fiorentina
4-3-3- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 25A. Njie
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 4M. Brescianini
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 5M. Pongračić
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 02:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bologna have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fiorentina have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bologna wins, 2 draws, 2 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 9, 2024 | Fiorentina 0-0 Bologna | Coppa Italia |
Last archived meeting: Bologna vs Fiorentina on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bologna score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bologna sit 13th in Serie A (8 points from 8 matches) and Fiorentina sit 18th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 4 |
A question about Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bologna the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is Bologna vs Fiorentina played?
- Bologna vs Fiorentina is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.