Bolton vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 37Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bolton wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolton vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Bolton (1,962) and Birmingham (2,000).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bolton vs Birmingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 10S. Dalby
- 8J. Sheehan
- 21E. Erhahon
- 11T. Gale
- 16S. Iling-Junior
- 20Ruben Rodrigues
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 18E. Toal
- 25M. Conway
- 6B. Davies
- 31G. Bazunu
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:55 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolton have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bolton wins, 1 draw, 2 Birmingham wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | Bolton 3-1 Birmingham | League One |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Birmingham 2-0 Bolton | League One |
| Feb 12, 2019 | Birmingham 0-1 Bolton | Championship |
| Aug 22, 2018 | Bolton 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Apr 3, 2018 | Bolton 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2017 | Birmingham 0-0 Bolton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Bolton score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolton sit 14th in Championship (13 points from 10 matches) and Birmingham sit 4th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
A question about Bolton vs Birmingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Bolton vs Birmingham played?
- Bolton vs Birmingham is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.