Birmingham vs Bolton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Bolton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Birmingham wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Bolton?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Birmingham (2,000) and Bolton (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Birmingham vs Bolton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 10S. Dalby
- 8J. Sheehan
- 21E. Erhahon
- 11T. Gale
- 16S. Iling-Junior
- 20Ruben Rodrigues
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 18E. Toal
- 25M. Conway
- 6B. Davies
- 31G. Bazunu
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Bolton have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Birmingham wins, 1 draw, 3 Bolton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | Bolton 3-1 Birmingham | League One |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Birmingham 2-0 Bolton | League One |
| Feb 12, 2019 | Birmingham 0-1 Bolton | Championship |
| Aug 22, 2018 | Bolton 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Apr 3, 2018 | Bolton 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2017 | Birmingham 0-0 Bolton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bolton score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Bolton | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 4th in Championship (17 points from 10 matches) and Bolton sit 14th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
A question about Birmingham vs Bolton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Bolton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Bolton.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Bolton played?
- Birmingham vs Bolton is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.