Cardiff vs Swansea: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 37Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Swansea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Swansea?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Cardiff (2,008) and Swansea (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Swansea have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cardiff win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Swansea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Cardiff 3-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Swansea 1-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Cardiff 2-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Cardiff 2-3 Swansea | Championship |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 12th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Swansea sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Swansea?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Swansea.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Swansea played?
- Cardiff vs Swansea is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.