Bolton vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Bolton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Bolton (1,978) and Middlesbrough (2,038).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 10S. Dalby
- 8J. Sheehan
- 21E. Erhahon
- 20Ruben Rodrigues
- 7K. Dong
- 11T. Gale
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 25M. Conway
- 6B. Davies
- 18E. Toal
- 31G. Bazunu
Middlesbrough
4-2-3-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 10A. Morris
- 8R. McGree
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 6S. Berhalter
- 14M. Peart-Harris
- 2C. Brittain
- 12L. Ayling
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolton have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Middlesbrough have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bolton wins, 0 draws, 6 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2024 | Middlesbrough 3-0 Bolton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Bolton 1-3 Middlesbrough | League Cup |
| Apr 9, 2019 | Bolton 0-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2018 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2017 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2017 | Bolton 0-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Bolton on Jul 20, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Bolton score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolton sit 15th in Championship (10 points from 8 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 3rd (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Bolton.
- Where and when is Bolton vs Middlesbrough played?
- Bolton vs Middlesbrough is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.