Sheffield Utd vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Bramall Lane, Sheffield
The Footlab AI model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sheffield Utd wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Sheffield Utd (1,983) and Derby (1,926).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sheffield Utd
4-4-2- 45P. Bamford
- 9T. Cannon
- 42Sydie Peck
- 22B. Brereton
- 4O. Arblaster
- 27K. Phillips
- 5J. Tanganga
- 8H. Choudhury
- 15L. Kitching
- 30R. Norrington-Davies
- 1M. Cooper
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 26R. Hedges
- 4D. Ozoh
- 18C. Taylor
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 23J. Ward
- 1J. Widell Zetterström
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sheffield Utd have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Derby have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sheffield Utd wins, 0 draws, 2 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Sheffield Utd 1-3 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Derby 0-1 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Sheffield Utd 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Derby 1-3 Sheffield Utd | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Derby 2-0 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Derby vs Sheffield Utd on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sheffield Utd score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Derby | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sheffield Utd sit 18th in Championship (9 points from 8 matches) and Derby sit 22nd (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Derby.
- Where and when is Sheffield Utd vs Derby played?
- Sheffield Utd vs Derby is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Bramall Lane, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.