Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica
The Footlab model makes Bosnia & Herzegovina the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Sweden. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
Sweden starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,612 vs 1,503).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bosnia & Herzegovina have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Sweden have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Japan(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Norway(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sweden score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Sweden | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
- The Footlab model makes Bosnia & Herzegovina the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Sweden.
- Where and when is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden played?
- Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bilino Polje, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.