FYR Macedonia vs Scotland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Telekom Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes FYR Macedonia the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Scotland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FYR Macedonia vs Scotland?
Scotland starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,513).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FYR Macedonia have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Scotland have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Rep. Of Ireland(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 0-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Wales(away) | 1-7 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Brazil(home) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bolivia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| May 30, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
FYR Macedonia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Scotland score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FYR Macedonia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Scotland | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FYR Macedonia vs Scotland?
- The Footlab model makes FYR Macedonia the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Scotland.
- Where and when is FYR Macedonia vs Scotland played?
- FYR Macedonia vs Scotland is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Telekom Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.