Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Ukraine the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Northern Ireland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
Ukraine starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,616 vs 1,493).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ukraine have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Northern Ireland have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy(away) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ukraine win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Northern Ireland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2021 | Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland | Friendlies |
| Jun 16, 2016 | Ukraine 0-2 Northern Ireland | Euro Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ukraine vs Northern Ireland on Jun 3, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Ukraine score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Northern Ireland score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Northern Ireland | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
- The Footlab model makes Ukraine the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Northern Ireland.
- Where and when is Ukraine vs Northern Ireland played?
- Ukraine vs Northern Ireland is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.