Poland vs Romania: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Śląski, Chorzów
The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Romania. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poland vs Romania?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Poland (1,591) and Romania (1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poland have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Romania have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino(home) | 7-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Poland win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Romania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2017 | Poland 3-1 Romania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Romania 0-3 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Poland score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Romania score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Romania | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poland vs Romania?
- The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Romania.
- Where and when is Poland vs Romania played?
- Poland vs Romania is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Śląski, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.