Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Botev Plovdiv starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,800 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Plovdiv have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Botev Plovdiv win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Septemvri Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 2-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 1-3 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Septemvri Sofia 2-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 26, 2022 | Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia on Mar 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Plovdiv score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Plovdiv sit 6th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 8th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.