CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 CSKA Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Dec 3, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-2 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 26, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.