Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lokomotiv Sofia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,577 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Lokomotiv Sofia (1,684) and Spartak Varna (1,685).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lokomotiv Sofia
4-2-3-1- 7S. Delev
- 31K. Stanoev
- 20D. Kostadinov
- 16M. Medfai
- 5E. Dost
- 44B. Katsarov
- 14A. Lyaskov
- 3K. Kostov
- 91R. Bidounga
- 6Eirô
- 99M. Velichkov
Spartak Varna
4-2-3-1- 11Boubacar Hanne
- 19S. Major
- 6José Ricardo Gomes Sousa
- 17T. Marinov
- 82Tomás Silva
- 7Buá
- 76David Valverde
- 44A. Granchov
- 4B. Ivanov
- 45J. Tshitoku
- 23P. Iliev
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 07:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Sofia wins, 2 draws, 2 Spartak Varna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Spartak Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| May 22, 2026 | Spartak Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Spartak Varna 3-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 12th in First League (8 points from 11 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Spartak Varna is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.