Bournemouth vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Bournemouth (2,204) and Leeds (2,173).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Leeds have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 10-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bournemouth win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Leeds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Leeds 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2023 | Bournemouth 4-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Leeds 4-3 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jan 20, 2015 | Leeds 1-0 Bournemouth | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2014 | Bournemouth 1-3 Leeds | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bournemouth sit 14th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Leeds sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
- The Footlab model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs Leeds played?
- Bournemouth vs Leeds is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.