Chelsea vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Chelsea (2,255) and Manchester United (2,291).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
3-4-2-1- 9João Pedro
- 10C. Palmer
- 17M. Rogers
- 7Pedro Neto
- 45R. Lavia
- 21J. Hato
- 29Pep Chavarría
- 3W. Fofana
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 1E. Martínez
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 9M. Rashford
- 19B. Mbeumo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 37K. Mainoo
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 5H. Maguire
- 23L. Shaw
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Manchester United have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 4-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chelsea wins, 1 draw, 3 Manchester United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Manchester United 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 16, 2025 | Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Manchester United 1-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Chelsea 4-3 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Manchester United 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chelsea vs Manchester United on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Manchester United | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 10th in Premier League (7 points from 5 matches) and Manchester United sit 12th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Manchester United played?
- Chelsea vs Manchester United is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.