Liverpool vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Anfield, Liverpool
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Liverpool. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,578 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,501 vs 2,367).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Liverpool vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Liverpool
4-2-3-1- 9A. Isak
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 7F. Wirtz
- 29B. Barcola
- 38R. Gravenberch
- 18C. Gakpo
- 5J. Jacquet
- 4V. van Dijk
- 6M. Kerkez
- 21K. Tsimikas
- 1Alisson Becker
Known absences
R. AraújoOut · Muscle injury
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 20N. Madueke
- 10E. Eze
- 7B. Saka
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 4B. White
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 1David Raya
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 11:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Arsenal have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 6-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Liverpool wins, 3 draws, 1 Arsenal win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Arsenal 3-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Liverpool score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liverpool sit 4th in Premier League (15 points from 8 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (21 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
A question about Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Liverpool.
- Where and when is Liverpool vs Arsenal played?
- Liverpool vs Arsenal is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Anfield, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.