Breidablik vs Stjarnan: prediction and stats
ÚrvalsdeildRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Kópavogsvöllur, Kópavogur
The Footlab model makes Breidablik the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Stjarnan. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Breidablik vs Stjarnan?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Breidablik (1,824) and Stjarnan (1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Breidablik have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Stjarnan have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | KR Reykjavik(away) | 3-3 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Valur Reykjavik(home) | 1-3 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Thor Akureyri(away) | 0-1 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jul 27, 2026 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar(home) | 1-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jul 20, 2026 | FH hafnarfjordur(away) | 0-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Thor Akureyri(home) | 4-2 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Fram Reykjavik(away) | 1-3 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Keflavik(home) | 1-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Valur Reykjavik(away) | 3-2 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Breidablik win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Stjarnan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | Stjarnan 4-4 Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Stjarnan 2-3 Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Stjarnan 1-4 Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Breidablik 2-1 Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Breidablik 2-1 Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Stjarnan 2-2 Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild |
Last archived meeting: Stjarnan vs Breidablik on Jun 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Breidablik score 2.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Stjarnan score 1.8 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Stjarnan | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Breidablik sit 4th in Úrvalsdeild (15 points from 9 matches) and Stjarnan sit 9th (10 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Breidablik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 15 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 33 | 30 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 43 | 21 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 46 | 21 |
| 9 | Stjarnan | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Breidablik vs Stjarnan?
- The Footlab model makes Breidablik the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Stjarnan.
- Where and when is Breidablik vs Stjarnan played?
- Breidablik vs Stjarnan is played on August 30, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Kópavogsvöllur, in the Úrvalsdeild.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.