Brighton vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Brighton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (2,363 vs 2,172).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tromso(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Girona(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Brighton win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Arsenal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Brighton 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Arsenal 2-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Arsenal 2-0 Brighton | League Cup |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Brighton 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Arsenal 1-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Brighton 0-3 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.6 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 8th in Premier League (53 points from 38 matches) and Arsenal sit 1st (85 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 85 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Brighton.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Arsenal played?
- Brighton vs Arsenal is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.