Tottenham vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Tottenham the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,225 vs 2,119).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tottenham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tottenham win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa | FA Cup |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| May 16, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham | FA Cup |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Tottenham 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Tottenham on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tottenham score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tottenham sit 18th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Tottenham the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Tottenham vs Aston Villa played?
- Tottenham vs Aston Villa is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.