Newcastle vs Hull City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Hull City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Hull City?
Newcastle starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,135 vs 1,902).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Hull City have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Konyaspor(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Hull City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2024 | Hull City 0-2 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 29, 2016 | Hull City 1-1 Newcastle | League Cup |
| Jan 31, 2015 | Hull City 0-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2014 | Newcastle 2-2 Hull City | Premier League |
| Mar 1, 2014 | Hull City 1-4 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2013 | Newcastle 2-3 Hull City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Hull City vs Newcastle on Jul 27, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Hull City score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Hull City | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Hull City?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Hull City played?
- Newcastle vs Hull City is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.